A senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations has disclosed that senior officials at the United States State Department have privately raised concerns about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s health and the political consequences it could carry for Nigeria ahead of the 2027 election.

Professor Ebenezer Obadare, the Douglas Dillon Senior Fellow for Africa Studies at the Council, made the disclosure in a commentary titled “Concerns About Tinubu’s Health”, published Monday in the United States. In it, he wrote: “Senior U.S. State Department officials have shared with me their worries about Tinubu’s health and its likely political impact.”

The commentary appeared days after Tinubu returned from a four-week vacation to the United Kingdom and France.

Tinubu left Nigeria on August 30 on a trip the Presidency branded a “working vacation” and returned to Lagos on September 29. On landing, he declared: “I’m ready to kick, ready to work. There is nothing wrong… I’m here, healthy and sound, and ready to go.” His spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, dismissed the health concerns as “entirely false.”

Obadare, however, argued that the President’s condition could not be concealed. He described Tinubu as looking “distinctly unbalanced” as he came down from the presidential aircraft at Murtala Muhammed International Airport, struggling with his balance and needing support from aides during public appearances.

Three falls in four years

Obadare recalled two public stumbles: Tinubu’s fall at the Democracy Day ceremony in Abuja in June 2024, and another while inspecting a guard of honour in Ankara, Turkey, in January 2026.

Documented media reports point to a longer pattern of three falls in four years as a national figure. In March 2021, then a politician, Tinubu crashed between two chairs on arrival at the 11th Arewa House Lecture in Kaduna and was helped to his feet by aides. In June 2024, as President, he fell during the official event marking 25 years of democracy in Nigeria, and aides on standby quickly lifted him up. In January 2026, in Ankara, he tumbled during an official parade; witness accounts described Turkish President Recep Erdogan holding and assisting his guest, helping him turn left and right as he walked.

The controversy echoes the 2023 presidential campaign, when Tinubu’s frail appearance and occasionally slurred speech drew scrutiny during the #WhereIsTinubu trend. After he missed three key events, including the Peace Accord signing in Abuja where Kashim Shettima stood in for him, speculation forced his camp to release a seven-second workout video filmed in London.

“Many have said I have died; others claim I have withdrawn from the presidential campaign… Well… Nope. This is the reality: I am strong, I am healthy and I am READY to serve Nigerians from Day One,” Tinubu tweeted from what he called his “hideout.” His spokesman insisted at the time: “He is in London, in his house… He was hale and hearty. He was not ill. He didn’t go to treat any ailment.”

Questions over the France trips

Obadare also flagged the President’s frequent travel to France. He put the visits at nine since 2023, while a detailed tally by The Punch counted 13 trips to Paris alone, with more than two months spent there cumulatively.

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Another comprehensive count says Tinubu has spent 315 days overseas, visiting at least 30 countries on 51 trips and covering 260,000 nautical miles. Paris remains his most frequented destination, with 11 to 13 visits, followed by London with nine.

Obadare called the frequency “puzzling”, noting there was “scant evidence” of a corresponding shift in Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship with France. French President Emmanuel Macron has not visited Abuja once since Tinubu assumed office, yet Tinubu has had private lunches with him, including on September 10, 2025, at the Élysée.

At one point, Punch noted, Nigerians began asking: “Can’t this friend come to your house too? Why is it always you going to meet them?”

Online, former US mayor Mike Arnold amplified unverified claims that “Nine trips to France since 2023. Seven of them medical,” alleging stage three cancer treatment. The Presidency firmly denies those claims, describing the trips as diplomatic and working visits. Arnold’s assertions remain unverified and without medical evidence.

Parallels with Yar’Adua and Buhari

Obadare drew parallels with Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, 2007 to 2010, and Muhammadu Buhari, 2015 to 2023. Yar’Adua’s prolonged absence for medical treatment in Germany in 2009 triggered a constitutional crisis over Section 145, and Obasanjo called him live on speakerphone at a campaign event: “Umoru, are you dead?” / “I am not dead, I am alive.”

Buhari spent about eight months of his first term on medical trips to London, prompting King Charles to tease him in 2022 about whether he owned a house in the UK.

Obadare noted that Tinubu’s recent absence similarly raised Section 145 questions, particularly when both the President and Vice President Kashim Shettima were outside Nigeria at the same time. The African Action Congress of Omoyele Sowore approached the Federal High Court, alleging failure to notify the National Assembly, though Tinubu’s return made the legal question moot. Sowore, the party’s presidential candidate, also speculated that the President was at a hospital during his latest Paris visit.

The sensitivity of the issue was evident in July 2025, when a TikTok user, Ghali Isma’il, was remanded in Keffi Correctional Centre by an Abuja Magistrate for posting a video falsely claiming Tinubu had died from poisoning.

The Presidency continues to push back. Special Adviser Daniel Bwala declared: “In fact, the President of Nigeria is physically fitter than most presidents in advanced countries.”

But as Obadare warned, with the January 2027 election approaching: “For the moment, Tinubu seems to have things under control, but the debate over his fitness for the office is bound to flare up again.”