ANAP foundation polls : NOI Polls in 2015, 2019 gave it to APC but Jonathan in 2011, 2022 to Peter Obi.
The presidential election opinion polls conducted for the ANAP foundation in 2015 and 2019 clearly showed that the then-APC candidate Muhammadu Buhari had a better chance of winning the previous two presidential elections.
The two polls were conducted by NOI polls, the same company that conducted the September 2022 presidential poll in which Peter Obi led but sparked controversy after the results were released by the foundation’s founder, Atedo Peterside.
“From the results, when asked who respondents will vote for in the coming 2015 presidential elections, the figures put General Muhammadu Buhari in a slight lead (32 percent) over President Goodluck Jonathan (30 percent); indicating a 2 percentage point lead,” the foundation said in a statement issued on February 16, 2015 to announce the results of the polls. Surprisingly, both candidates have widespread support across gender and age groups.
“Some key points to note: on average, Buhari enjoys widespread support in the North-West and North-East geopolitical zones, while Jonathan remains the lovely bride of the South-South and South-East zones.”
“The high PVC collection rates in the North-West and North-East Zones (above 80% in several states) appear to have given Buhari a slight advantage over the incumbent President Jonathan, as much lower PVC collection rates of below 60% were recorded in several states in the South-East and South-South zones (Jonathan’s area of strength) at the time of our survey,” according to the statement.
On February 14, 2019, the ANAP foundation released the results of a poll conducted for it by NOI polls , in which the foundation stated that Buhari of the APC was leading the main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar.
According to an ANAP foundation statement on the NOI polls results, “when asked who respondents will vote for in the coming 2019 Presidential elections, the figures put President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead (with roughly one-third of the votes) over Alhaji Atiku Abubakar” (with approximately one-quarter of the votes). Surprisingly, both candidates have widespread support across gender and age groups.
Atiku’s support is also more evenly distributed across all six geopolitical zones. Buhari falls far short of the 25% threshold in the South East Zone and is in danger of falling short of the 25% threshold in the South South Zone.
“Buhari’s lead is substantial but not unassailable because the South East Zone, where he is weakest, has the highest concentration of undecided voters.” Voter turnout can also make a significant difference on election day, particularly if there is a significant disparity in turnout figures across geopolitical zones. Buhari was always the front-runner in the race.
Atiku began from scratch and now has momentum on his side. Given the size of the undecided vote and its concentration in the three southern geopolitical zones and the North Central Zone, the Anap Foundation has concluded that the final result is “too close to call.”
On both occasions, in 2015 and 2019, Bihari of the APC won, and the NOI poll results were uncontroversial.
In 2011, NOI Polls Limited conducted an opinion poll for the ANAP Foundation, and the results were released on March 22, 2011 as follows: “Ahead of the presidential elections scheduled to take place on April 9, 2011, the ANAP Foundation decided to commission NOI Polls Limited to conduct a face-to-face nationwide presidential poll to ascertain public sentiment on the candidacy of aspirants for the office of President.”
The survey was conducted by NOI Polls using well-established survey methodologies, including scientifically tested sampling techniques developed by the Gallup Organization.
The opinion poll was conducted between February 11th and February 28th, 2011, with a representative random sample of Nigerians drawn from the country’s six major geopolitical zones and reflecting the rural-urban population split.
“The poll’s overarching goal is to empirically determine which of the presidential candidates has the best chance of receiving the people’s mandate to ascend to the nation’s highest office.”
The purpose of the survey in the run-up to the elections is to allow Nigerians to express their opinions on important political issues and candidates, as well as to generate data that indicates the citizenry’s voting intentions prior to the elections.
Data from the nationwide presidential poll revealed the following: Almost all Nigerians have given the April elections some thought.
“Nearly three-quarters of respondents have voted in at least one previous election.” Almost all Nigerians had registered to vote in the upcoming election or planned to do so. An extension of the voter registration period would allow more eligible voters in Nigeria to be registered.
“46% of Nigerians knew Ibrahim Shekarau was running for president.” Nuhu Ribadu is running for president, according to 48% of those polled. Muhammed Buhari is running for president, according to 73% of Nigerians. Goodluck Jonathan is running for president, according to 93% of respondents. Less than 20% of Nigerians were aware that all other candidates were running for president. The majority of Nigerians (85%) are very confident in their choice for the presidency. The majority of respondents (53%) believe Goodluck Jonathan will be elected president in April. The majority of people (68%) approve of Goodluck Jonathan’s performance as president.”
Jonathan went on to win the election, just as the poll predicted.
However, the APC was the first to dismiss the latest NOI poll results, which put Peter Obi of the Labour Party in a clear lead, and some have suggested that the APC blows hot and cold when it suits the party.